Why interpreting expert knowledge is difficult
with Yannick Vogt (in English)
Have you always wanted to know how forecasts work in practice? How can they be used, for example, to predict developments in countries, from famine to armed conflict? Can AI help here? A report from the field (Duration: 44:31min) .
Index to the Video:
- 00:00 min : Introduction
- 00:42 min : Background information
- 01:40 min : Why forecasting?
- 03:51 min : What is a forecast and how does it work?
- 05:43 min : Who is forecasting?
- 07:38 min : Traditional expertise vs. Forecasting: Fighting bias
- 08:51 min : From forecast to expertise
- 11:31 min : Example: (Old) platform for forecasting
- 15:28 min : Individual judgement to an iterative collective model
- 19:08 min : Changing to AI forecasting
- 22:45 min : Example: New platform for forecasting
- 25:33 min : Important to remember
Q&A
- 27:40 min : Will any news or media sources be used for the forecast?
- 28:49 min : What do you know about the assumptions made by your forecasters? What would happen if there were major changes to the situation in the near future (black swan effect)?
- 33:37 min : What happens to the human forecasters, the experts, in the AI era? Are they taking the role of the human in the loop? Reviewing the AI forecast?
- 36:47 min : Is the role of human forecasters changing even more? What changes are there in information collection and structuring?
- 39:45 min : Does forecast accuracy depend on the subject? Are there subjects where experts are better than the crowd, or does it differ?
- 42:18 min : What were your Lessons Learned about forecasting?